We shouldn’t have to tell our children that they won’t live as long as we will. It is almost unfathomable that with our nation’s wealth and technological prowess, our children face shorter life spans than we do. But that is what current trends predict. Rising rates of obesity and diabetes are just part of the brick wall being placed in the path of longevity for future generations of Americans. We must reverse this trend. Our policies must take into account the overall health of our people as well as the health of each individual.

A 2005 JAMA study “A Potential Decline in Life Expectancy in the United States in the 21^st Century” took issue with the Social Security Administration’s estimates predicting further growth in life expectancy. The authors argued that basing the predictions on historical data failed to account for trends in health and mortality in the current population – specifically they say “…we see a threatening storm – obesity – that will, if unchecked, have a negative effect on life expectancy.”¹

By mid-century in the United States, it is projected that pediatric obesity might shorten life expectancy by 2 to 5 years.²,³ Any approach to reforming our health system must be undertaken with the overall goal of improving the overall health of Americans, particularly our children.

Today, one in three children is overweight or obese;⁴ and in some minority populations, this proportion approaches one in two. The consequences of obesity are considerable threats to the vitality of out nation – today and in the years to come. 60% of overweight children ages five to seventeen have at least one risk factor for cardiovascular disease, including high cholesterol, high blood pressure, and abnormal glucose tolerance.⁵ Other consequences include greater risk of asthma, type II diabetes, and sleep apnea. Between 1979 and 1999 discharges for diabetes nearly doubled and obesity related hospital costs increased almost four-fold (from $44 to $160 million in 2006 dollars) for children ages 6-17.⁶

Being overweight puts children at risk for disease in adulthood. Being overweight as a child significantly increases the risk for heart disease in adulthood as early as age 25.⁷ The growth in childhood obesity will cause more than 100,000 additional cases of heart disease in US by 2035.⁸ No generation wants to be the first to tell its children that they may have shorter and less healthy lives. But if current trends continue that will be precisely the dilemma we face. Any restructuring of the healthcare system must ensure that this prediction does not become a reality.