After waiting nearly six years, the Lebanese are on the verge of finally knowing who the suspected assassins of their former Prime Minister Rafik Hariri are.  On Monday, the prosecutor of the Special Tribunal for Lebanon (STL) Daniel Bellemare sent a draft indictment to the STL pre-trial judge Daniel Fransen. The draft indictments will now be reviewed by judge Fransen, who will then decide if there is enough evidence to move forward with the trial. Though still undisclosed, the indictments are expected to name members of Hezbollah, and possibly Syrian and Iranian security officials. This process may take up to 10 weeks.

But the political and security situation in Beirut may not hold up that long. After withdrawing from the government - and thus causing its collapse - Hezbollah and its allies are rejecting the re-nomination of current Prime Minister Hariri. They are attempting to postpone the process of naming a new Prime Minister indefinitely after realizing that there is no feasible alternative to Hariri. On Tuesday, the group stepped up the pressure, staging a show of force by deploying hundreds of its members, unarmed in black uniforms, in several neighborhoods of Beirut. The move raised fears of renewed violence. Hours later, the men withdrew,  after spreading panic among the capital's residents and forcing school closures.

Yet despite its incendiary rhetoric, Hezbollah knows that under the current circumstances it cannot achieve a decisive win against the March 14 coalition. Its aim appears to be focused on securing further leverage in order to force a deal that would undo the tribunal proceedings, something that has thus far proven futile.

Meanwhile, international mediation and bargaining continues. After the failure of the Saudi-Syrian efforts, Qatari Prime Minister Sheikh Hamad bin Jassim bin Jaber al-Thani and Turkish Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoglu launched their own initiative with Lebanese political leaders in Beirut. Their effort kicked off on Monday in Damascus, led by Syrian President Bashar Assad, Turkey Prime Minister Recep Tayyib Erdogan, and Qatar's Emir Hamad bin Khalifah al-Thani. No immediate results were apparent, but the three leaders urged all Lebanese parties to exercise restraint.
 
Similarly, French President Nicolas Sarkozy called Assad suggesting that an international contact group be set up to help shepherd Lebanon through these difficult times. Such a group would include France, the United States, Turkey, Qatar, Saudi Arabia and Syria. However, Assad reportedly rejected the idea. Instead, Damascus is seeking to be exclusively tasked with keeping Lebanon stable, as was the case prior to its withdrawal in 2005. In return for urging its ally Hezbollah to remain calm and facilitating a deal over the STL, it hopes the international community would again come to accept its domination of Lebanon.

So far the United States, France, Egypt and Saudi Arabia have stood firm against "legitimizing" a Syrian return to running Lebanese politics. In the U.S., members of congress reiterated their strong support for Lebanon's sovereignty and independence, calling on all parties to preserve stability. President Barack Obama also touched on the latest developments in Lebanon in a phone call with Egyptian President Husni Mubarak. The White House later said in a statement that Obama thanked his Egyptian counterpart for his support of the STL "which is attempting to end the era of impunity for political assassination in Lebanon and achieve justice for the Lebanese people."