On October 19th, the Syrian conflict arrived in full force to Beirut with the brutal assassination of General Wissam al-Hassan, director of intelligence for Lebanon's internal security service and the man who recently unveiled Syria's plots to plan assassinations in Lebanon. The car bomb, which killed seven others and injured scores more, raises the legitimate question of whether Lebanon is facing a return to its darkest days of instability.  A relapse, however, could be curtailed if Lebanese leaders refrain from engaging in deadly clashes, which ultimately feed into the same cycle of violence intended by al- Hassan's killers.

The March 14 group immediately cast the blame on Iran and Syria, and Christian leader Samir Geagea said that the plot was carried out by Hezbollah. March 14 also called for the  the resignation of the Mikati Government, insisting that it can no longer safeguard Lebanon.  The United States recently supported calls for a new government.  Meanwhile, Prime Minister Mikati has suspended his offer to resign, citing the risks of a power vacuum.  Yet, the consequences of governmental paralysis could prove to be just as dangerous as those of a vacuum, especially as no political leader seems to have a strategy for its replacement.  

In the near term, the strike will have an immediate and detrimental effect on Lebanon's internal security apparatus.  General al-Hassan was a gatekeeper-a shrewd intel officer tasked with the enormous challenge of preventing his country from being overtaken by terrorist plots and the rising tide of Syria's civil war.  This summer he had successfully foiled the plans of a Syrian regime cell, led by former MP Michel Samaha, to sew chaos across Lebanon through coordinated bombings.  With al-Hassan's precise removal, the battlefield has effectively been prepared for further provocations and the deeper entanglement of Lebanon in the Syrian crisis. Given that Hassan was reportedly the only intelligence chief capable of maneuvering despite Hezbollah's overpowering intelligence and security network, it will be difficult for his replacement, Colonel Imad Othman, to fill his shoes.

In the long term, there is the disheartening but real possibility that the ninth casualty of the explosion in Achrafieh will be Lebanon's stability and movement towards true democracy. With violence tearing Syria apart, Hezbollah forceful in its threats and lack of cooperation on arms or security, and a weak and fractured opposition, the future of Lebanon seems uncertain. 

With the loss of General al-Hassan, the challenges facing Lebanon are formidable.  The risk of greater Syrian and Iranian meddling -and the violence accompanying it-has increased, and the man most capable of preventing it is gone.  The political polarization brought by the attack threatens to accentuate Lebanon's regional vulnerability in the near term and derail its democratic political evolution in the long term. The Lebanese must uniformly condemn such crimes and injustices, regardless of their allegiance or interest. Additionally, they must express their frustration and opinion without resorting to violence. This assassination, the most recent in a series of crimes which started in 2005, underscores the need for a stronger state and proper agency to enforce justice in Lebanon. Without justice and accountability, there may be no end to the violence and terror.