The Battle for a New Government
By Anonymous
The assassination of General Wissam al-Hassan has thrown Lebanon headlong into a political crisis that has evolved into a battle for the government itself. March 14 blamed the assassination of Lebanon's Internal Security Forces (ISF) Chief on the Syrian regime and its ally Hezbollah. On Tuesday, the March 14 coalition declared its unequivocal boycott of the Mikati government, saying the cabinet represents a threat to peace by being beholden to the interests of Hezbollah, Syria and Iran. Demands for Prime Minister Mikati's resignation have been met with stiff opposition, but March 14 is adamant to bring the government down through all means possible, including street protests.
Future Movement bloc leader and former Prime Minister Fouad Siniora took a strong stance against violence, lack of security control at the border, and Syria's violation of Lebanon's sovereignty. He condemned Hezbollah's decisions to take Lebanon to war with Israeli while sidelining the authority of the state. In essence, Siniora outlined principles that drove the protest of March 14 2005, which gave the movement its name.
Despite these calls, many wonder what the new government would like and whether it would have ability to govern given Hezbollah's entrenched control of the security, defense and intelligence infrastructure. It is unclear who would form or lead the new government, and how they would be able to bring the right stakeholders to the table. The process of forming a national unity government took five months in 2009, and although the new demands do not call for a unity government, the current political paralysis, coupled with international and regional fear of a power vacuum in Lebanon, make it a very complicated matter.
Despite these uncertainties, March 14 is receiving reinvigorated support both domestically and internationally. President Michel Suleiman, for one, said that the door is "still open for a unity government." U.S. Acting Assistant Secretary for Near East Affairs, Elizabeth Jones, visited Lebanon this week and expressed support for Lebanon's state institutions and for the transition to a new government. In a meeting with Suleiman, she confirmed US support for Lebanon's Armed in the interest of preserving the country's stability. The U.S. Administration is increasingly worried about spillovers of the Syrian conflict into Lebanon, facilitated by a Syrian-friendly government.
The gravity of the security situation is giving the March 14 coalition a renewed opportunity to offer an alternative vision. What remains to be seen is how the coalition will navigate the political paralysis to achieve its goals. Should the group wish to recapture its appeal, its leaders must supplement their demands with a plan outlining next steps if the boycott prove fruitless. Further, they must put forward a roadmap for the formation of a new government, its mandate and the mechanism to implement it, away from political bickering. In the absence of this vision, it will be hard for Lebanon's leaders to bring the country back from the brink.


