Election fever in the United States is in full swing, with campaigns closing in on their final month. In Lebanon, the stakes appear even higher, though parliamentary elections won't happen until next year. The reason: reforms to the electoral system are about to change Lebanon's political landscape and set the terms for 2013's parliamentary elections.

Electoral reform accelerated in August when the Cabinet approved a draft law based on proportional representation, which divides Lebanon into 13 'medium-size' electoral districts. The reform debate enters primarily on the two issues of district size (an electoral framework from 1960 that established many small districts served as the basis for the 2009 elections) and whether districts will be won in a proportional or a winner-take-all system. Such questions have important ramifications for the country's many religious and ethnic minorities.
 
With reform likely to shift political powers in Lebanon, Parliament remains divided on the issue. Of the three proposals under debate, the cabinet's draft law enjoys broad support among the current government leaders, including Prime Minister Michel Sleiman, and Prime Minister Nijab Miqati. As an alternative to the cabinet draft law, MPs Georges Adwan, Sami Gemayel, and Butros Harb have proposed 50 small districts in a winner-take-all system, but Speaker Nabih Berri and Hezbollah dismissed this proposal. A third proposal, from Free Patriotic Movement chief Michel Aoun, envisions Lebanon as a single district in which each sect elects representatives to a proportional number of seats.

The March 14 group has not endorsed the 12-district law. For one, the Future Movement views the cabinet's draft law as "malicious" and serving Hezbollah's political goals. Druze leader Walid Jumblatt, head of the Progressive Socialist Party, is critical of both the cabinet's medium-size district proposal and the opposition's 50-district plan, and prefers the 1960 law which empowers the Druze electorate.

Of considerable concern to many is the possible change in the relative share of Christian votes In Lebanon. According to former Finance Minister Mohamed Chatah, the government's proposal would decrease the weight of Christian votes by 4%, while the opposition's 50-district proposal would increase Christian voting power. Christian leaders are now debating which law would be in their best interest, but there are disagreements among them.

How important is this draft law and the parliamentary elections which will set the stage for the parliamentary race and the subsequent 2014's presidential bid? In something akin to an international get-out-the-vote campaign, Prime Minister Mikati urged the Lebanese diaspora back in April to "swiftly register" to vote after the Foreign Ministry approved expatriate voting. Many are skeptical this will pass, as the mechanism of voting abroad has not yet been finalized and the deadline for registration is fast approaching.

Though many of these electoral concerns were aired four years ago, many politicians opted to settle for the 1960 law as a compromise for the various religiouis communities. If the cabinet proposal passes, this would likely strengthen Hezbollah-led opposition's hold on power, but many are skeptical that the law would be passed without the consent of the opposing parties. While the politicians debate the form the new law would take, the ongoing conflict in Syria looms on the horizon, threatening to influence the results drastically should the status quo change.