After four months of silence, former Prime Minister Saad Hariri lashed out at Hezbollah and Syria, personally criticizing the group's leader Hassan Nasrallah and announcing his sympathy for Syrians demanding their freedom. Speaking from Paris, where he remains out of personal safety concerns, he accused Assad and Nasrallah of being directly responsible for the toppling of his government. His plan of action? A stronger opposition by the March 14 coalition, and the overthrow of the current Hezbollah-dominated government through democratic means. One underlying assertion permeated Hariri's two- hour interview: Lebanon cannot exist as a democracy with Hezbollah's weapons outside of state control.

As Hariri goes on the offensive, Nasrallah finds himself in an increasingly uncomfortable position. Interpol has issued arrests for four members of his group, but he has vowed not to turn them in, "not in 30 days [the legally mandated deadline for Lebanese authorities]... nor in 300 years." Although he has managed to discredit the Tribunal in the eyes of some, many Lebanese remain hopeful that justice will be served. Nasrallah cannot aggrieve the entire Sunni community and continue to attack their leader Saad Hariri without risking driving the contending groups into confrontation.

Against the backdrop of domestic instability is the threat emanating from neighboring Syria. For years, Hezbollah had secured itself a staunch ally, delivering weapons and upholding its "resistance" rhetoric. But Syria is now in turmoil. Should the demonstrations succeed in toppling the Syrian leader, Nasrallah's position will be significantly weakened. His allies in the cabinet will likely lose the support of their Damascene patron, giving the March 14 camp more room and freedom to regain ground.

Sensing a potentially drastic change in the regional power balance, Jumblatt is reasserting his support for the Tribunal. Gone are the days when he slams it as an institution set to wreak havoc in the country. Although he argues for the importance of stability, Jumblatt simultaneously warns against cutting ties with the STL, halting funding or withdrawing Lebanese judges from it. True to his reputation of being the chameleon of Lebanese politics, Jumblatt is constantly reassessing his alliances. The Lebanese await, with him, the outcome of turmoil in Syria.

Lebanese authorities now have 16 days to arrest the suspects and send them to court. Everyone knows this is out of the question, as the suspects have allegedly either been "liquidated internally" or are living in an undisclosed location, potentially outside the country. Hezbollah could easily prevent their arrest. The group, however, could eventually face a showdown with their compatriots, as well as the international court.

It is not far-fetched for Lebanese Sunnis, perceiving Hezbollah members as the assassins of their leaders, to take matters into their own hands if they feel that justice has not been served. Protests in the Sunni stronghold city of Tripoli are ominous of similar, more intense, clashes in other cities. With an uprising next door, tensions rife, and the Lebanese leaders sharply divided, maintaining stability is no easy task. The outcome of the Syrian uprising, too, will dictate the direction Lebanon will take in the future.