Lebanese militant Shiite group Hezbollah's policy towards the Syrian uprising has been clear: a steadfast commitment to the Syrian regime and a dismissal of the recent protests as an Israeli-American conspiracy. Its stance has been so disappointing for the group's Syrian fans that many protestors carried banners criticizing the Shiite group. This backlash in Syria, the prospect of a regime change, and the progress of the Special Tribunal for Lebanon towards a trial in absentia have put the group in a tight spot.

The question of Lebanon's financial contribution to the STL has to this day not been resolved. In an interview with Hezbollah's Al Manar television this week, Hezbollah Secretary General Hassan Nasrallah asserted that the group's attitude towards the tribunal has not changed: it remains an American-Israeli project and will not receive approval for funding from the group's ministers. Needless to say, this has made the issue more complicated for Prime Minister Najib Mikati, who has publicly committed Lebanon to meeting its international obligations.

Many analysts believe that should Hezbollah deny the STL funding in the cabinet, PM Mikati may take one of two routes: he may press forward with a Presidential Decree that would allow funding through the Ministry of Justice, thereby circumventing a potentially disastrous deadlock. Alternatively, he may quit his post, turning the current cabinet into a caretaker government.

The United States and the European Union are pushing for the former option. To that end, U.S. Ambassador Maura Connelly and U.S. Deputy Assistant Secretary for Near Eastern Affairs Jack Walles met with Christian leader Michel Aoun this week. Aoun's ministerial bloc controls the Justice Ministry, which can funnel the money to the STL. The Presidential decree requires the approval of the Justice and Finance ministers, as well as Mikati and Lebanese President Michel Suleiman.

This may also be a preferred option for Hezbollah, who would rather maintain control over the government than see it collapse. Threats to the government's unity have started to emerge and may worsen after Druze leader Walid Jumblatt's anticipated speech on Sunday, in which he is due to discuss the group's political stances. Additionally, Hezbollah realizes that PM Mikati commands more popularity among Lebanon's Sunni constituency than any other Sunni ally. In trying to avoid a Sunni backlash and heightening sectarian tensions, Hezbollah is left with but a few options.

Hezbollah indeed still claims popularity among Lebanon's Shiites, but its image is starting to change. It was once seen by many as an incorruptible party that does not engage in sectarian conflict and whose main task is the protection of Lebanon from Israel. The May 2008 events, in which Hezbollah's fighters fought Sunni and Druze groups, and the successful start of the STL, have contributed to changing that image. Despite the media campaign that it launched to discredit the STL, the STL indictment sowed the seed of doubt among many Lebanese in Hezbollah's alleged role in the assassination of late Prime Minister Rafik Hariri.

Another reason for concern is a loss of a strategic ally which for the longest time constituted Hezbollah's primary weapons conduit and provided it with strategic depth.

Additionally, the group's rhetoric on the resistance has been challenged. By claiming that the current Syrian uprising is meant to oust a regime that has been "fighting the US and Israel," Hezbollah has turned against it thousands of protestors who have been fighting for freedom and dignity - and who now are troubled by the group's hypocritical stances. Looking forward at the aftermath of the Arab uprisings, Hezbollah may have to revise its strategy in order to recapture some of the popularity it has lost in recent months. It is not expected, however, to make any large compromises given its loyalty to its Iranian patron.