The Lebanon Bulletin Archive

 

A weekly look at the latest news and developments in Lebanon and the region.

Lebanese Economy Weathers Political Crisis

Despite the political turmoil Lebanon is facing, analysts are confident that its economy will likely survive the crisis, even under a Hezbollah-backed government.  Following the collapse of the cabinet headed by Saad Hariri last month, Lebanon witnessed a rapid increase in currency conversion from Lebanese Pounds to US Dollars and money transfer out of the country. These transactions were clearly fueled by the fear of uncertainty. However, analysts are saying that due to its solid banking system and an abundance of foreign currency reserves Lebanon's economy can sustain pressure.  According to the head of one of Lebanon's main banks, the Lebanese Central Bank has enough foreign currency reserves to cover 78 percent of depositors in Lebanese Pounds, adding that the primary liquidity of banks represents 48 percent of deposits.

But despite these reassurances, growth for the year 2011 remains a main concern for most economists. Financial institutions have projected a five percent growth for this year, down by two percent from 2010. Such a decrease in the growth rate will slow down the economy, and in turn this will lead to a decline in tax revenues to the state, causing the increase of the national deficit. With a debt of around $53 billion and a $3 billion deficit, Lebanon's economy cannot afford to suffer any setbacks. Lebanon is driven by the private sector which accounts for 80 percent of the Gross Domestic Product GDP, and with a sluggish economy that does not attract private investors Lebanon will suffer immensely.

Ratings agency Standard and Poor's has recently downgraded the outlook on Lebanon's B credit rating from 'positive' to 'stable', while Moody's said the collapse of the government called into question Lebanon's economic growth. These concerns will be addressed by the new government; however, it remains to be seen how a Hezbollah-controlled cabinet will manage to convince foreign investors that Lebanon is not a risky place to invest in.

 

Filed in Blog Topics:  Middle East, Politics, Lebanon, economy