The Lebanese Spring, Seven Years Later
By Anonymous
Born from the flurry of protests that engulfed the country following the death of late Prime Minister Rafik Hariri in 2005, the March 14 Alliance celebrated its seventh anniversary this week. Contrary to previous years, politicians chose to take the back seat this year and give civil society leaders the platform to preach values March 14 officials have been supporting for years. While many acknowledge the founding of March 14 as a turning point in Lebanese history, some ponder the shortcomings of the movement in the intervening years. Indeed, the mistakes that plagued March 14 in 2005 and 2009 continue to divide the movement today, but the uprisings in Syria and the region give them renewed hope at the possibility of realizing an independent Lebanese state.
The success of the Cedar Revolution (also referred to as Independence Intifada by local groups) in 2005 was marked by the ability to gain independence and force the withdrawal of Syrian troops and intelligence network from Lebanon. Immediately after the withdrawal and government change however, the movement committed its first tactical mistake by allying itself with the same group it blamed for destabilizing the country - namely, Hezbollah - during the parliamentary elections. Meanwhile, sectarian tensions worsened as the majority-Sunni community supported Saad Hariri while their Shia counterparts backed Hezbollah and their pro-Syrian allies.
Notwithstanding the challenges it faced, the alliance was not able to translate the positive momentum created in 2005 into an actionable political, economic and social roadmap. Regional political pressure brought die-hard opponents of the Syrian regime back into the Syrian fold: Saad Hariri made the trip to Damascus, and Druze leader Walid Jumblatt spoke of the need for resistance against Israel. March 14 supporters found themselves estranged from the leaders they once supported and disillusioned by the movement.
The Arab Spring brought both a sense of hope and dismay to the Lebanese people. As the winds of freedom blew east from Tunisia and Egypt, the Lebanese recalled their own moment in 2005 when freedom and independence seemed attainable. In 2011, they awoke to the same old political system, unable to shake off tribal and sectarian loyalties or to devise an independent foreign policy - something that is crucial to ensuring stability and economic prosperity. As neighboring countries celebrated the end of decades of dictatorship, Lebanon's own uprising had not ushered in a period of true and secular democracy.
When the Arab Spring came knocking on Syria's door, the Lebanese braced themselves for a turbulent period given the nature of the relationship between the two countries, and the possibility that instability in one could spill over to the other. However, the perseverance of Syrian protestors reignited the Lebanese movement's momentum and its conviction that the authoritarian regime nearby will meet its end. The Future Movement released a new political manifesto claiming the Arab Spring as the springboard for change in Lebanon and for better relations with the new Syria. In this week's rally in downtown Beirut, March 14 leaders remembered the martyrs who died fighting for Lebanon's independence and saluted their Syrian neighbors for their courage.
The uprising in Syria has given new life to the movement, as the Hezbollah-led government now faces the challenge of governing while trying to regain credibility despite its support of the Syrian regime. Hezbollah is now facing repeated calls for disarmament, and many observers argue it may be considering alternative options for political engagement should it lose its regional clout and military prowess following the fall of the Assad regime. It is unclear whether its weakened position may encourage it to engage in a dialogue with the March 14 coalition, but the Hariri-led coalition certainly finds itself in a better position to negotiate today.
While March 14 still has many challenges to overcome before it can create the kind of change it hopes to see in Lebanon, it is important for the Lebanese and the international community to continue to support the ideals advocated by the March 14 coalition in hopes that the the next anniversary will see the rise of a free, independent Lebanon in a more stable and prosperous region.


