Lebanon Back in the Syrian-Iranian Orbit
By Anonymous
Five months of political void in Lebanon ended with the appointment of thirty new ministers led by Prime Minister Najib Mikati. In a return to the pre-Cedar Revolution era, the new line-up is comprised mainly of ministers close to Hezbollah and the Syrian regime. The lion's share went to appease Hezbollah's Christian ally Michel Aoun, who has been seeking control over key ministries such as defense and telecom.
Western and Arab countries have reacted with caution, voicing hope that the new cabinet would respect its international commitments, including support for UN Security Council resolutions and the Special Tribunal for Lebanon (STL). The U.S. Congress is expected to go a step further, introducing legislation that limits aid to a Hezbollah-dominated government.
The first to offer congratulations for the new cabinet was Syrian President Bashar Assad, who, moments after the announcement made a phone call to Lebanese President Michel Suleiman. Eager to consolidate control over his neighbor as unrest continues on his home turf, Assad was reportedly eager to see this government's formation. Syrian Ambassador to Lebanon Ali Abdel Karim Ali, explained that it would "strengthen the country's stability," which would also be in "the interests of Syria."
The new make-up put the defense, justice and telecom ministries under the control of Hezbollah's allies. The Foreign Minister, who belongs to the Hezbollah-affiliated AMAL bloc, said the country would follow a policy of "neutrality." Given Lebanon's current position at the UN Security Council, this means that Lebanon is most likely to continue to take a conservative stance towards violence in Syria, refusing to condemn the regime for its atrocities.
The cabinet is now expected to draft a ministerial statement outlining its stances on critical issues in the country. Many observers expect it could end cooperation with the STL, investigating the assassination of late Prime Minister Rafik Hariri. Mikati reportedly opposes such a move. Second, the cabinet may seek to reverse its stance on UNSCR 1701, brokered after the 2006 war with Israel, which mandated the disarmament of Hezbollah. Furthermore, the Interior Ministry is due to draft the electoral law for the 2013 parliamentary elections - which gives the pro-Syrian-Hezbollah coalition an advantage in the upcoming vote. Based on the ministerial statement, parliament decides to grant the cabinet its vote of confidence. This is expected to happen with the shift of Jumblatt's bloc of MPs to Hezbollah's side.
The political orientation of the government, and the various blessings it has received from Iranian and Syrian officials, put it at odds with Western powers, especially the U.S. Although the U.S. Administration has thus far shown that it prefers to wait and see what the cabinet's "actions" are going to be, U.S. congressmen have been more critical - especially as the cabinet includes members of Hezbollah, an organization that the U.S. considers "terrorist." U.S. Rep Ileana Ros-Lehtinen, chairwoman of the House Foreign Affairs Committee, has called for ending U.S. aid to Lebanon. Diplomatic and military ties may also suffer under the new government.
Paradoxically, although the March 14 coalition, led by former PM Saad Hariri, has been ousted from government, its current position may empower it to speak and act more freely. It may give its various factions the chance to come together as one movement, as it had in 2005. As the new ministers take over, Lebanon faces precarious economic and social conditions, and the Lebanese expect the new cabinet to attend to the economy - starting by appointing the Central Bank governor to ensure stability of the banking sector.
The Lebanese people, fatigued by successive political crises, do not seem to be reassured by the cabinet formation. Reports indicate that many are not pleased with the one-sided nature of the cabinet, neither are women and human rights groups with the lack of female representation. Some say they expect it to collapse, especially if the status quo in Syria changes in light of the continuing upheaval. Until then, the new pro-Syrian, Hezbollah-dominated cabinet may indeed isolate Lebanon from the international community and take it back in time to an era it briefly overcame in 2005.


