"If there is no stability here [in Syria], there's no way there will be stability in Israel", Rami Makhlouf, President Assad's cousin, the regime's businessman and a lightning rod for Syrian protestors, told the New York Times this week. He did not try to embellish or deny this seeming threat. When pushed to clarify his threats, Makhlouf downplayed the possibility of a war with Israel but warned the international community not to pressure Syrian President Bashar Assad or else "he will do something that he won't be happy to do." Makhlouf is Assad's childhood friend, and his brother Hafez is the head of the Syrian Military Intelligence who is currently leading the charge against the protesters. He has been designated by the U.S. Treasury Department for his illicit and corrupt activities.

Makhlouf's comments were received with caution in Lebanon. The Syrian leadership, along with its Iranian ally, has participated in various proxy wars with Israel, through its Lebanese ally Hezbollah. Makhlouf's tacit threat, and Syria's intensified efforts to form a cabinet in Lebanon this week, demonstrate an urgency for the regime to consolidate its power over Lebanon. This may be especially important, as the regime appears to lose its grip over Hamas following its reconciliation with its former rival Fatah. With its relations with former regional allies in freefall, Syria may feel the need to more forcefully rassert its influence in Lebanon to gain leverage and fend off political pressure.

Assad's regional allies have started to withdraw their support for him. Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyeb Erdogan warned that Syria was about to enter the "Halabja and Hama phase" in reference to two of the most brutal massacres in recent Arab History. Meanwhile, Qatar has distanced itself from the regime in Damascus, seeking to hold the same position with regards to the popular dissents sweeping the Middle East.

Assad's most powerful asset is his alliance with Iran. A new United Nations report indicated that Tehran continues its shipping of weapons to Syria. Syria and Iran realize that a war with Israel would come at a very high cost, but the cost may still be lower than that of the collapse of the Syrian regime, a loss of a lynchpin ally for Iran. In Lebanon, Hezbollah realizes that going to war might alienate it from its community and allies, but the party can do little to oppose a potential decision made by its Iranian patron and supported by Syria.

To ensure its ally's control of the Lebanese government, Syria is currently pressuring its allies to finalize the cabinet formation in Beirut. A source close to the Hezbollah-backed March 8 coalition told Lebanese daily The Daily Star that "High-level Syrian officials have been in direct contact with March 8 figures this week to urge the government be formed within the next few days." MPs affiliated with Hezbollah and Amal, Ali Hassan Khalil and Hussein Khalil, visited Damascus this week where they were reportedly instructed to resolve the government impasse. Upon arriving in Beirut, they met with PM Najib Mikati and relayed the Syrian nominations for the most contended ministerial posts. The government crisis is thus expected to subside, with Hezbollah and pro-Syrian parties taking control over the cabinet.

For its part, Lebanon's policy thus far has been one marked by fear of taking any action that would unleash Damascus' rage. Historically, the Syrian authority has considered Lebanon to be a potential launch pad for attempts at a regime change in Damascus, but most Lebanese politicians are either standing by the regime this time around or maintaining silence. Lebanese authorities have denied entry to hundreds of Syrians fleeing the shelling of their cities by the Syrian Army; some of them were carrying wounded relatives. A security official said that Syria is "exerting great pressure on Beirut to prevent displaced Syrians from entering Lebanon."

There is a great degree of nervousness in Beirut, especially as black-market arms are rumored to flow from Lebanon into Syria. It is feared by some to be a pretext for possible Syrian retaliation against Sunni elements in North Lebanon. Sales of weapons in Lebanon have reportedly soared in recent weeks, fueled by demand from Syria. Syrian citizens, driven by a need for self-protection, are said to be rushing to buy arms.

So far, the protestors have made it clear that their demonstrations are a peaceful, non-violent movement for freedom and democracy. However, the regime is threatening civil strife, among the country's majority Sunni population (about 70%) and minority Alawite, Christian and Kurdish minorities, before ever relinquishing power.  As Assad's cousin threatens a fight till the end, Lebanon watches with much trepidation.