Ask a Lebanese to count the dark years of her country's past and she'll quickly run out of fingers.  The country's history is littered with times when investors hesitated, businesses shuttered, families separated, assassinations were witnessed, and neighborhoods were torn apart.  But those times of uncertainty and strife were reliably bracketed by years of brilliance, investment, and regeneration.  For Lebanon, vitality has always waited in the wings.  As 2013 gets underway, vitality and uncertainty are again wrestling for dominance in a pitched battle for Lebanon's future.

For each vision, evidence abounds, though much of it can be read either way.  The incredible discovery of oil and gas reserves in the Levant Basin: will it be an economic blessing for Lebanon, leading to energy independence, and years of export-oriented growth?  Or, will it instead bring a resource curse, ushering in years of corruption and partisan fighting?  Electoral reform before the summer elections: will it be fashioned to foster collaborative politics, or will Lebanon miss its chance and further cement preexisting divisions?  The Syrian conflict: will it eventually sap the strength Hezbollah draws its Iranian patron, or will it drag Lebanon down to the depths of instability? 

The questions above target some of the key elements and issues which will determine the vibrancy or austerity of Lebanon's political and economic scene over the coming years.  Lebanon cannot control the objective risks that come with living in a hazardous region.  What leaders and the civil society can do is work to mitigate those risks and their negative effects by strengthening state institutions, building a secular democracy, reforming the electoral system, building a transparent financial and regulatory infrastructure to leverage potential natural resources, and continue to defend human rights and civil liberties.

First, on the home front, the fate of two domestic institutions hangs in the balance.  One is the structure of parliament and its constituencies.  As this bulletin has previously covered, electoral reform remains one of the most important battles standing before Lebanon today.  The nature and scope of the redistricting agreement-if one can ever be reached-have the potential to alter the balance of power in Lebanon.  Though the challenges are numerous, a truly representative law which treats all voters with equality before the state would be an important achievement in 2013.

At the same time, this week has seen the emergence of another fierce battle, waged in 140-character tweets and televised speeches between President Michel Suleiman, Prime Minister Najib Mikati, and Mufti Mohammad Rashid Qabbani on civil marriage. The President threw his support behind civil marriage-currently illegal in Lebanon-on Twitter, which drew a response from Mikati and a stern fatwa in opposition from Qabbani.  Civil marriage, like many of the country's most contentious issues, highlights the age-old battle to define the Lebanese identity.  In a country with deep sectarian divisions, Lebanon cannot afford to deny its citizens the option for a civil marriage.  The task of the government should be to guide this debate into the proper channels of legislation - not shoot down proposals and petitions put forward by civil society organizations and political groups.

Second, the discovery of what could be valuable gas and oil reserves in the Levant Basin has the potential to set Lebanon on a course of energy independence and economic viability at a time when the region's tourism sector is facing a grim future.  The pitfalls, however, are great, and the region is rife with examples of the unforeseen consequences of resource-driven politics. Lebanon has the rare opportunity to pave a smooth road from the gas fields to international markets by preparing the domestic regulatory environment to ensure fair, transparent and market-driven competition.  The disputes that will no doubt arise from capitalizing on this discovery can be resolved in existing, legal channels with the help of international arbiters.  Lebanon should make every effort to avoid elevating issues of gas extraction and arbitration to the level of regional politics, where they will surely meet deadlock and sap investor confidence.

Finally, as the Syrian conflict drags on to the East, Lebanon has the unenviable challenge of bolstering its defenses while dealing simultaneously with a booming refugee population. U.S. military aid to Lebanon is a step in the right direction.  A strong and independent Army will be critical if conditions in Syria continue to deteriorate.  At the same time, the current crisis has the potential to be an enduring problem for a country which is no stranger to hosting refugees.  The Lebanese government should focus its energy on doing everything in its power to assist those Syrians who have sought refuge within their borders. Shunning them, illegally detaining them or sealing the borders with Syria is at best an imprudent, inhumane, reactive policy. 

It is clear that the challenges facing Lebanon are numerous and significant.  That conclusion, however, should not be taken as an indication that uncertainty will eclipse vitality for the Lebanese people in the coming years.  Unlike so many countries in the region, Lebanon has existing institutions and alliances which, though often fractured and halting, can be deployed in an effort to resolve some of its most daunting challenges.  Vitality in times of uncertainty, after all, strikes at the very essence of what it means to be Lebanese.  Investors, analysts, and observers would do well to keep that in mind as they evaluate the country in the months and years to come.