The initial caution which marked the reaction of Lebanese politicians to news of the popular uprising in Syria began to dissipate this week, with the Hezbollah-backed March 8 coalition expressing support for Syrian President Bashar and accusing the contending March 14 coalition of backing the protestors.

Hezbollah's Al Manar TV broadcasted a report implicitly accusing outgoing Prime Minister Saad Hariri's Future Movement of shipping arms from the northern port of Tripoli to Syria. Pro-Hezbollah Member of Parliament Qassem Hashem said that members of the March 14 group were also "inciting" the Syrian people using online social networking sites.

The irony of the arms accusation was not lost on March 14 politicians, who were quick to remind Hezbollah of its own arsenal and tight grip on the country's security. Future Movement lawmaker Mohammad Kabbara said that it was Hezbollah that was exporting weapons in order to destabilize nearby regimes.

Aside from the back and forth accusations, March 14, several members of which were assassinated for their outspokenness against the Syrian regime's interference in Lebanon, is now carefully calculating the repercussions of the Syrian unrest. Syrian unrest. Some politicians have been conservative in their views, preferring calm in the region, while others  realize that they stand to benefit from a regime change that would loosen Syria's grip over Lebanon. The Cedar Revolution put an end to Syrian tutelage over the country, but the events that followed, including a Saudi-Syrian rapprochement, resulted in a Syrian comeback. Some are quietly hoping that a weakened Syrian leadership would bring Lebanon more independence and autonomy.

The opposing side, on the other hand, has expressed sympathy with the Syrian regime, even as its politicians condemn other authoritarian regimes. March 8 leaders who supported the protestors in Tunisia, Egypt, Libya and Bahrain, have completely switched sides in the Syrian case, standing firmly by the regime. Hezbollah, the Shia group which has been in a strategic alliance with the Syrian regime since its establishment, sees that a weaker Syrian regime might jeopardize arms flow from Iran and weaken its domestic and regional legitimacy. The group's ally, Speaker of Parliament Nabih Berri, hailed the speech as a step towards the foundation of "a modern Syria." President Michel Suleiman hoped that the Syrian leadership would "overcome" the instability, and caretaker Prime Minister Najib Mikati reassured the Syrian leader of his support in a phone call he made last night.

Speculations on the outcome of the protests may be premature, but they are likely to grow, give that the people's demands were ignored in Assad's much-awaited speech. Close as it is, Lebanon has chosen to stay at a distance, for fear of the aftermath. Regardless of the outcome, the current relationship between the Lebanese and Syrian leaders leaves much to be desired. The Lebanese are sympathetic with their Syrian counterparts, for they too, have had to live under the control of the Syrian mukhabarat. March 14 has long called for healthier, more transparent relations between the two states, but Syria has not obliged. A regime that is more responsive to its people's demands and less friendly to Hezbollah and its Iranian ally would bring more stability to the region, and would be more serious about long-lasting peace talks. U.S. policy-makers must keep that in mind as they watch uprisings take root in the Levant.