The Lebanon Bulletin Archive

 

A weekly look at the latest news and developments in Lebanon and the region.

President Suleiman Commits to International Justice... Can Mikati Deliver?

In his address to the UN General Assembly, Lebanese President Michel Suleiman reaffirmed Lebanon's commitment to respecting resolutions related to international legitimacy such as the Special Tribunal for Lebanon (STL), investigating the assassination of former Prime Minister Rafik Hariri. Suleiman remarkably stated that the STL is "in accordance with the spirit and ministerial statements of successive cabinets". But he did not allude to the difficulties Lebanon is facing in upholding its commitment to the court - namely, Hezbollah's objection to funding it. This is now pushing Lebanese leaders to bypass both the Hezbollah-controlled cabinet and parliament to secure the STL funds, but changing positions may force Hezbollah to make a compromise or risk losing government control.

Although Suleiman's statement may have paved the way for a smoother Lebanese discussion on funding the STL, the issue is not expected to pass without a confrontation between the March 8-controlled cabinet, in which Hezbollah allies oppose the Tribunal, and the current March 14 opposition that has supported the STL since its institution in 2007.

Prime Minister Najib Mikati increasingly finds himself in a tough spot, as he tries on the one hand to secure his cabinet's approval for funding and, on the other, to assure the UN Security Council next week that Lebanon is able to deliver on that goal.

Lebanon is due to pay its annual share of the funding, $32 million, this month. It is obliged to contribute 49 percent of the STL expenditure, while the rest of the cost is borne by voluntary contributions from UN member states.

On the eve of his trip, Mikati met in Beirut with U.S. Ambassador Maura Connelly, EU Ambassador Angelina Eichhorst, and UN Special Coordinator for Lebanon Michael Williams. After the meeting, Williams expressed his confidence that Lebanon would pay its share of funding - an indication of Mikati's confidence of his ability to gain the support of the cabinet's majority.

However, it is highly unlikely the Hezbollah-dominated government will support an institution that Hezbollah deems an "Israeli-American conspiracy." Hezbollah's Christian ally Michel Aoun this week said that he would oppose such a provision even if Hezbollah adopted it, given that it is "unconstitutional." Disagreement between rival March 14 and March 8 coalitions over this issue resulted in an ambiguous clause in the ministerial policy statement, which stipulated that the Lebanese cabinet supports it "in principle."

Since the adoption of that statement, however, both the President and Druze leader Walid Jumblatt have shifted their support to the Tribunal. The changing positions, in no small measure due to the changes on the ground in Syria, now risk isolating Hezbollah and its Christian ally. With less ministers and parliamentarians willing to cast their vote with Hezbollah's bloc, the Shiite militant group may find itself in weak position: it will have to either turn a blind eye to the STL funds or face the collapse of the government it now leads.

The deadlock over this issue has pushed Suleiman and Mikati to consider bypassing both cabinet and parliament and issuing a decree signed by the President, PM, and Finance and Justice Ministers to allow funding. Should the Suleiman's and Mikati's MPs join Jumblatt in his support for the STL, however, Hezbollah may have to compromise even before the potential decree is raised again.

Filed in Blog Topics:  United Nations, Najib Mikati, STL, March 8