Regional Powers Keep A Watchful Eye on Syrian Uprising
By Anonymous
The uprising sweeping Syria continues to grow despite the brutal crackdown against peaceful protests. With the killing of Osama Bin Laden momentarily eclipsing the turmoil there, the protesters seem, at present, to be standing alone in their fight for democracy and liberty.
Despite the timid attempts by the international community to protect the demonstrators and ensure their right of free expression, it was only the United States that followed through on its threats of imposing sanctions against the Syrian regime by freezing the financial assets of prominent political figures. The European Union, which has greater economic leverage, has yet to turn its words into actions and pressure the Syrian President Bashar Assad to end the violence against the civilians.
The free hand Assad is currently enjoying is also due to the seemingly ambivalent position of key regional players, namely Israel, Saudi Arabia, and to some extent Turkey, in response to the Syrian uprising.
For years, Israel has expressed its 'uneasy' comfort with the Syrian regime that has kept the Golan Heights region stable since 1973. In fact, even during the 1982 Israeli invasion of Lebanon and the fierce fighting that ensued between the Syrian and the Israeli armies on Lebanese soil, the Syrian Israeli border remained calm, and the ceasefire between the two countries was not breached.
Israeli acceptance of the "devil we know" argument has allowed the Baath Regime to reinforce its despotic rule, ally itself with Iran, smuggle weapons to Hezbollah, destabilize Lebanon, and block any chance for peace. The regime used the Israeli threat as a pretext for oppression and for pursuing its own interests in the region. However, a recent change in tone may be starting to emerge with Defense Minister Ehud Barak calling on Israelis not to fear a regime change in Damascus. Barak said that "changes in the Middle East hold great promise for Israel's children and grandchildren," adding in a television interview that Assad is nearing his downfall.
For its part, Turkey is walking a tight rope, trying to avoid chaos in Syria that might empower the large Kurdish population there, while maintaining its support for the Sunni population. In a recent television interview, Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyeb Erdogan put Assad on notice by emphasizing that no one "wants to see another Hama massacre." Erdogan was referring to the 1982 Syrian military operation to crush the rebellion of the Muslim Brotherhood in the city of Hama.
However, Ankara fears that the demise of the regime in Damascus might heighten Kurdish demands for political self-determination or calls for an independent state encompassing Turkish territories. Furthermore, chaos in Syria would allow Kurdish rebels to launch attacks against Turkey, similar to the skirmishes along the Turkish-Iraqi border. Nevertheless, Ankara wishes to maintain its stature as a defender of Muslim causes and a representative of moderate Sunni Muslims. As such, Erdogan is still trying to strike a difficult - and perhaps unattainable - balance between avoiding large scale massacres against Sunnis, especially in the predominantly Sunni city of Aleppo, while keeping the possibility of the survival of the Syrian regime alive.
Finally, the most influential Arab country, Saudi Arabia, has not yet issued a single statement regarding the events in Syria. Riyadh is currently dealing with what it perceives as a Shiite threat in Bahrain and unrest in Yemen. Last month, it sent troops to support Bahrain's Sunni King Hamad bin Issa al Khalifa who is facing popular protests and demands for reforms by the country's majority Shia population. Saudi Arabia wants to avoid amplifying sectarian divisions in the region and does not want to be viewed as supporting the Syrian protesters who are predominantly Sunni against the Alawite minority-dominated regime, especially after it had contributed to the crackdown on the predominantly Shiite majority Bahraini opposition.
The Syrian economy, run by the Sunni business class and boosted by capital inflows from the Gulf states, including Saudi Arabia, is ailing under the unrest. The Syrian business class is wary of deteriorating economic conditions. The ongoing unrest may deal a huge blow to its economic interest, potentially leading it to break away from its traditional alliance with the Alawite leader. Herein lies the power of the Saudis: they can appease the majority Sunni population and pump in liquidity to the markets - but Saudi Arabia will only do it for a price. Reports from the region indicate that the Saudis have offered their help in turn for a breakup of the Syrian regime with its thirty-year old Iranian friend and its Lebanese proxy Hezbollah. It remains to be seen whether Assad will take up the offer.
Given the intricacies and the sectarian and ethnic cleavages in the region, and the brutality being inflected on their determined peaceful quest for change, the Syrian protesters are looking protection from the United States and Europe. Washington and Brussels should step up their pressure on Assad to make sure that Syrians have the right to demonstrate without fear of being persecuted and that their basic rights are respected. The long-standing policy of bargaining with Arab dictatorships has only fed hostility towards the West and strengthened the Islamist radical groups, such as Al Qaeda. A long-term strategy must seek to make friends with the people, as the unwavering desire for self-determination indicates that there may be no way out for the dictators this time around.


