Amid the uprisings sweeping the Middle East, efforts to form a new government in Lebanon appear to have stalled. On the surface of it, political bickering among the Hezbollah-led March 8 coalition on the distribution of key ministries appears to be the cause. Christian leader Michel Aoun, who recently returned from Syria, continues to demand the lion's share of ministries in a move seen as obstructionist. Most Lebanon observers believe that Syria, through its allies, is purposely delaying the formation of Lebanon's cabinet.

There are two schools of thought explaining why Syria is not facilitating the formation of a cabinet led by its allies. The first argues that Damascus, given increasingly favorable regional developments, believes it can replace PM-designate Najib Mikati with another even more beholden to its interests. Mikati, despite having been appointed by the Hezbollah-led coalition, has grown hesitant about ending official cooperation with the Special Tribunal for Lebanon (STL), a key demand by Hezbollah, Iran and Syria. The PM-designate has been put on notice by Washington and the international community about possible sanctions Lebanon could face should it decides to end its cooperation with international justice and compliance with the relevant United Nations Security Council resolution. 

A second school of thought argues that Syria is intentionally stalling the formation of a new government pending negotiations with Saudi Arabia and the United States. The Syrian regime, arguably, understands it currently cannot wholeheartedly grab control of Lebanon without significant consequences on itself and its Lebanese allies. Therefore, having struck its blow by ousting PM Saad Hariri as he was meeting with President Obama in Washington, Syria prefers to negotiate from a position of strength in Lebanon.

Whichever the case, most agree that Lebanon will not see the formation of a cabinet in the coming days and that Syria and Iran appear to be in the driver's seat. Yet several factors will continue to have an impact on the ongoing domestic and regional bargaining. Those include the instability currently spreading through the region, the mass gathering that the March 14 coalition is preparing for March 14th, the threat of sanctions and end of U.S. assistance to Lebanon, and the STL indictment believed to accuse Hezbollah - and possibly Syrian and Iranian officials - in the assassination of late PM Rafik Hariri.

Fearing an end to Lebanese cooperation with the STL, sources intimately familiar with the court said this week that the Lebanese government does not have the authority to withdraw the Lebanese judges at The Hague, since they were named by UN Secretary General Ban Ki-Moon, not Lebanese authorities. As for funding, pan-Arab daily Al-Hayat reported that any Lebanese attempt to halt funding for the tribunal will be raised at the UN Security Council. However, the sources acknowledged that funding was one of the major challenges facing the STL and explained that attempts are now underway to find alternative financial resources. To this end, STL officials will consult with representatives of Gulf countries, the U.S., EU and others.

Meanwhile in Beirut, U.S. Senators John McCain and Joe Lieberman met with Lebanese officials and opinion leaders, reiterating their support for the country's stability and international justice. Both stressed that maintaining good relations with the new government depends on whether or not it is controlled by Hezbollah and on its policies with regards to the STL. The senators also expressed optimism about the sense of people power currently sweeping the region, highlighting their hope that Syrians and Iranians won't remain the exception.