The Lebanon Bulletin Archive

 

A weekly look at the latest news and developments in Lebanon and the region.

Syrian threats come to life

Last Sunday's commemoration of the Day of the Nakba, denoting the uprooting of Palestinians from Israel, turned bloody in South Lebanon. In past years, the day of commemoration was marked by rallies in Lebanon, Syria, Jordan, and other Arab countries - but never near the border with Israel. This year, it was different.

Inspired by the Arab Spring, hundreds Lebanese and Palestinian refugees protested at the Maroun al Rass village near the Lebanese-Israeli border. Provocations between protestors and the Israeli army resulted in the death of 10 protestors and the injury of several more.

Different accounts of the event came out. The Lebanese army said that Israel opened fire without any provocation, while Israeli Foreign Ministry held that Lebanese soldiers "had laid down deterrent fire to stop the violent rioters" as they attempted to breach the border fence. The Israeli Foreign Ministry stopped short of accusing the Lebanese army of shooting at the protesters; an accusation the Israeli army says it has evidence to support. United Nations Special Coordinator for Lebanon Michael Williams accused Israel of using "brutal and disproportionate force against the protestors."

The Lebanese border was just one front that the Israelis were grappling with, as for the first time since the 1973 Arab-Israeli War, Palestinian refugees in the Syrian town of Majdal Shams marched towards the border. At least 4 people were killed in conflict with Israeli soldiers.

The United States and Israel have accused Iran and Syria of instigating the protests. The State Department said that the Syrian government is playing a destabilizing role, viewing the protests as "an effort by them to take focus off the situation that's happening right now in Syria. And it is a cynical use of the Palestinian cause to encourage violence along its border as it continues to repress its own people within Syria."

It is no coincidence that the unrest along the Syrian border comes a few days after Syrian strongman Rami Makhlouf drove home the message that stability in Syria is intertwined with that in Israel. In his interview in the New York Times, he had shied from qualifying his statement as a threat, but the message is crystal clear.

As dissent against the Syrian regime continues, the government is adopting a two-fold strategy in the hope of avoiding its collapse. First, it is aiming to deflect attention from the atrocities committed against the people by fomenting clashes with Israel; and second, it is threatening the world that "if it's not the Ba'ath regime in power, then chaos will ensue."

The Syrian stance has raised serious concerns in the U.S. and around the world. The border clashes on May 15 could prove to be more than a one-time event, as the regime implements its new approach of redrawing the "rules of engagement" with Israel.

This Syrian strategy of "all in" puts Israel in a quandary. Responding with force to Syrian President Bashar Assad's "bullying" may ease off internal pressure on the Syrian regime as it may give it seeming legitimacy in its proclaimed fight against Israel. On the other hand, if Israel allows Assad to have his way, then this might embolden the Iranian-backed Hezbollah to capitalize on its self-proclaimed 2006 victory and influence the ensuing UN Security Council resolution 1701, which called for the disarmament of the group.

So far, Iran and Hezbollah are watching at a distance, defending the Syrian regime in every possible way without interfering militarily. Perhaps Sunday's clashes will force those in Israel who are still routing for Assad to reconsider their faith in this regime.

Filed in Blog Topics:  Iran, Syria, Israel, protests, corruption, arrests, uprising, Palestinians