As Palestinian refugees and Syrians marched towards the Israeli border at the Golan Heights, marking the 1967 Naksa Day, the Lebanese border nearby witnessed an odd calm. Commemorating the 1948 Nakba Day last month, Palestinian refugees walking peacefully towards the border were shot by Israeli soldiers. Many believe that the Syrian regime was behind the protests.

The Lebanese Armed Forces' (LAF) watchful eyes, compounded by a fear of potential consequences, ensured that the protest on the Lebanese side remained peaceful. Days before the planned protest, the LAF closed off the area near the borders, preventing what would have otherwise been a deadly encounter. Nearby, the clash, which proved to be a spectacle for thousands watching it on their television screens, regretfully led to the death of 23 protestors ad the injury of hundreds, according to Syrian authority figures. Palestinian refugees later clashed with the Syrian-backed Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine - General Command (PFLP - GC), blaming them for the instigation of violence and the loss of lives.

The regime, fighting for its survival, is frantically  trying to prove its importance to the region's, and Israel's, stability. It has attempted to destabilize Lebanon, but security has been safeguarded. In fact, recent reports from Beirut indicate that Hezbollah is tightening security in southern Beirut as Syrian refugees continue to flock to the country. Perhaps the Party, having learned lessons from the 2006 war with Israel, is treading carefully before making any provocative moves. Hezbollah is careful not to lose the support of its Shia constituency and waste its military capabilities in a new war to save the Syrian regime. Its Iranian patron is not willing to gamble on its most valuable strategic asset, either.

In Syria, the increasing violence is driving some of the regime's allies away. The most dramatic shift was in Turkey, where Prime Minister Erdogan went from an ally pushing for reform to a critic of the Syrian regime. Turkey has its own considerations: first, it models itself as a democracy responsive to people's demands; and second, it borders Syrian towns where unrest has dislocated hundreds of refugees. More than 1,600 refugees fled to Turkey since the eruption of violence.

Furthermore, Turkey's capital and southeast region is home to a large Kurdish population, which extends to Syria. The Turkish government has historically had an uneasy relationship with the Kurdish population, but that started to change under the current AKP government. An aggrieved Kurdish population in the region could, however, upset these reconciliation efforts and destabilize the country. In his efforts to play the Kurdish card against Turkey and the Syrian opposition, President Assad invited the Kurdish leaders for talks, but they rejected his offer.

Turkey's security interests and attempt to gain favor with its Sunni-majority population has pushed it to embrace Syria's fledgling opposition. Last month, Turkey hosted some 300 members of Syria's opposition and civil society in Antalya. However, the Turkish government has limited its condemnation to calling on Syrian President Bashar Assad to speed up reforms.

Internationally, more countries have joined the U.S. and its Western allies in condemning Syrian violence. Yesterday, the U.S. and its western allies pressed ahead with a resolution against Syria at a meeting of the UN atomic watchdog, but the move was opposed by Russia and China. The resolution found Syria "non-compliant" with the International Atomic Energy Agency's nuclear safeguards standards.

Alongside China and Russia, some other countries are still on the regime's side. The Arab Gulf states are reportedly funneling money into the country to shore up reserves and sustain the Syrian economy. Lebanon's politicians maintain their quiet, and the U.S. is still hesitant to support the protestors.

Despite the modest support for the uprising, Syrian experts are predicting that the regime may have entered its final countdown, evident in the increase of repression and violence, and the mounting death toll. There are fears of sectarian divisions in Syria, especially with news surfacing about residents taking up weapons in the northern town of Jisr al-Shughur, to fight the Syrian armed forces. Amidst the violence and chaos, the Lebanese are hoping that prudent policies and the army's strong command may help avert a similar crisis in the country.