The Lebanon Bulletin Archive

 

A weekly look at the latest news and developments in Lebanon and the region.

Tides may be turning as crackdown intensifies

The tides may be turning against the Syrian regime as it starts to lose its friends, both regionally and internationally. As the Syrian revolution enters its third month, with the death toll surpassing 1,000, observers are starting to cast doubt on the survival of the regime. The brutality of the crackdown has broken the threshold of fear domestically and has driven activists around the globe to intensify their calls for an end to the atrocities. Additional sanctions against the Syrian regime, including President Assad, have severely isolated the Syrian leadership, while President Barack Obama's speech has delivered a strong message to the Syrian leadership.

Following a period of silence and hesitation, the Lebanese are also starting to speak out against the Syrian massacres. A group of activists have mobilized in support of the Syrian protestors. After their first planned event was cancelled due to pro-Syrian groups' threats to attack its venue, the activists planned another rally under the slogan "Lebanese for the Freedom and the Dignity of the Syrian People." Since no venue would agree to host the activists, the rally took place in a warehouse in eastern Beirut.

The activists criticized the Lebanese authorities' treatment of Syrian refugees fleeing violence in their villages. This was also the subject of discussion between U.S. Assistant Secretary for Near Eastern and North African Affairs Jeffrey Feltman and Lebanese officials during his visit to Beirut this week. Feltman criticized the crackdown on Syrian protesters and stressed that that the U.S. would assess its relationship with a new Lebanese cabinet based on its composition and its stance on the Special Tribunal for Lebanon.

Measured criticism of the Syrian regime has spread even to Assad's friends in Lebanon, including Druze leader Walid Jumblatt. While Jumblatt praised the Resistance this week in commemoration of Liberation Day, which marks the end of the Israeli occupation of the South of Lebanon in 2000, he appealed to Syrian President Bashar Assad to immediately implement reforms. The pro-Syrian Lebanese daily Assafir, meanwhile, asked in an editorial why Assad has not already moved to implement those reforms. Similarly, Hezbollah Secretary-General Hassan Nasrallah in his Liberation Day speech urged Syrians to support the regime but added that Assad should implement reforms.

Hezbollah's support for Assad threatens to erode whatever support it has amongst Syrians. Nasrallah denied claims that his party had sent thousands of troops to Syria to help crush the demonstrators.

Regional allies have also broken with Syria, with Turkey leading the way. Turkish foreign minister Ahmet Davutoglu advised Assad to introduce reforms to serve as "shock therapy" to the people-without these reforms, he said, the regime has little hope for survival. More importantly, Turkey is hosting Syrian opposition leaders at a conference in Antalya "in support of the revolt in Syria and the claims of the Syrian people." This is the strongest collaborative effort yet on part of the Syrian opposition since the start of their movement in mid-March; its outcome could severely weaken the ruling regime.

The European Union, the United States, and Canada have all enforced sanctions on Syrian leaders. Following the European Union's decision to impose sanctions, the U.S. and Canada also imposed sanctions on President Assad and his top aides. These are targeted at the President's brother and head of the Republican Guard, Maher Assad, as well as the heads of the intelligence service and military intelligence, among other officials. Due to Europe's greater leverage in Syria, its sanctions, including asset freezes, travel bans, and an arms embargo, may prove a stronger impediment to the regime.

A debate concerning the arms embargo has flared in Washington, where a group of bipartisan senators have introduced a bill to tighten sanctions on Iran, Syria, and North Korea to prevent weapons and technology transfers as well as the production of weapons of mass destruction.

Perhaps the strongest message came from American President Barack Obama, who this week stepped up the pressure on Syrian President Assad, asking him to lead his country to democracy or "get out of the way." Although the President did not go so far as to demand the Syrian president to step down, as he did with the Egyptian and Libyan dictators, this has thus far been his most direct warning against the Syrian president.

All eyes are on Syria today as the G-8 summit opens in France. U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton and French Foreign Minister Alain Juppe yesterday called on the international community to "react" to the repression in Syria. Russia has thus far ruled out any intervention, but the massacres have left little room for negotiation in favor of the regime. Russia's hesitation may be trumped by other international powers. More than two months into the revolution, it seems the momentum has finally started to pick up in favor of those calling for their freedom. The regime has committed so many atrocities that neither reform nor the lack of it may save it at this point.