A year into the Syrian uprising, Lebanon has arguably managed to avoid a major spurt of violence many feared would spread in the region. With violence devolving into a protracted bloody fight between the Assad regime and Syrian rebels, Lebanon fears that its own political divisions may be fed by conflict in Syria. Trying to maintain a semblance of peace as the summer season approaches, the Lebanese have adopted a non-alignment policy, seeking to disengage itself from regional politics. Ever-present in the minds of the Lebanese is the question of Syria, and how the outcome of the conflict will impact the country's political stability and economy.

While Beirut has remained safe from the spillover of violence, its borders, especially along the northeast area, continue to witness security violations. Syrian troops have planted landmines along much of the northern frontier and have crossed the border several times in pursuit of Syrian rebels. In several cases, Syrian army incursions have targeted heavily populated Sunni neighborhoods that are supportive of the Syrian opposition. A number of civilians have been killed by gunfire and many were injured in the process. The violence resulted in heightened tensions between Sunnis on the one hand, supportive of the revolutionaries, and the Shiites and Alawites, who are betting on the survival of the regime.

The border has also traditionally been the site of arms transfer between Syria and Lebanon. In recent months, Syrian government officials and pro-Syrian factions accused March 14 of supplying Syrian rebels with arms. Similarly, Hezbollah has reportedly been accused of taking advantage of the mayhem to smuggle in long-range missiles from Syria.

Things in Lebanon's eastern and northern Palestinian camps are not looking good, either. The political divide has infiltrated even the camps, where rival factions have engaged in battle since the start of the conflict. The absence of a single dominant faction in the Palestinian camps has allowed fundamentalist groups to take root, most notably Fatah al Islam, which fought a bloody war with the Lebanese army in 2007, and Al Qaeda-affiliated militant group the Abdullah Azzam Brigades. Last month, the Azzam Brigades were implicated in a terrorist plot against the Lebanese Army.

Amidst this apprehension, Lebanon's economy has not fared well. The biggest blow hit the banking sector, Lebanon's most robust and stable economic sector. With the West applying stricter sanctions on Syria, the Lebanese banking sector has come under extreme scrutiny. Last year, the Lebanese Canadian Bank was suspected of money laundering in favor of Hezbollah. This week, the Central Bank lifted the banking secrecy law on 18 accounts suspected to be involved in dirty money and terrorist funding activities. Many bankers claim that the stricter measures has resulted in a decrease of deposit, but the Central Bank maintains that these measures are meant to protect the banking sector.

Meanwhile, Lebanon's major source of income, tourism, has also seen a 25 percent decrease in 2011, while activity on the Lebanese-Syrian border has decreased by at least 75 percent. The influx of Syrian refugees to Lebanon is further straining a limited national budget, and raising questions over potential solutions.

It is in the interest of Lebanon as well as the international community to contain violence in the region. Given Lebanon's limited capabilities, the international community has a role to play in setting up a stabilization fund for countries affected by the Syrian uprising. Such a fund would include security and economic assistance, and it would serve to ensure that the Lebanese army is able to control terrorist activities, and allow Lebanon to shield itself against further economic decline. Furthermore, the fund would benefit Syrian refugees as they struggle to secure a living as some enter their first year of exile.

The events in Syria have broadly impacted Lebanon and the region, potentially restructuring regional alliances. Analysts estimate that the Assad regime will fall within the next 6 to 18 months. Its downfall, and the potential rise of a Sunni power in Syria, may fortify the March 14 coalition and put further pressure on Hezbollah to reassert itself in Lebanon. The ground in Lebanon is fertile for clashes, but authorities need to act now to ensure that tensions do not develop into a full-fledged sectarian conflict.