While Critical of Assad, Regional Powers Reluctant to See Him Go
By Anonymous
Six months into the Syrian uprising, more and more countries have distanced themselves from the Syrian regime - but most have yet to call on President Bashar Assad to step down. Gulf countries are leading an Arab League initiative aimed at ending violence in Syria, while Turkey and Iran continue to tread carefully, voicing support for the people's free will without abandoning Assad.
Saudi Arabia and Qatar long ago broke with the Syrian regime, with the former denouncing the use of violence and immediately thereafter recalling the Saudi Ambassador to Syria.
Qatari Emir Sheikh Hamad Bin Khalifa Al Thani, for his part, reportedly pressured the Syrian regime to host Arab League chief Nabil al-Araby in Damascus on Saturday. Al-Araby will presumably arrive in Damascus with proposals to end violence, signaling that regional countries are still invested in the incumbent regime. There is talk of a possible freeze of Syria's membership in the Arab League, similar to what had been done to Libya's under Muammar Qaddafi.
Over the past few weeks, Turkey has shifted its political tone without altogether calling for Assad's ouster. Eager to carve a new role for itself in the emerging Middle East, Turkey downgraded its diplomatic ties with Israel and halted military cooperation between the two countries. Additionally, Prime Minister Recep Teyyep Erdogan announced he will be visiting Egypt, Tunisia, and Libya next week, where he hopes to commit to the reconstruction of Libya. Turkish officials were engaged in heavy diplomacy with their Lebanese counterparts last week, urging them to stay away from decisions that would isolate them from the international community. Turkey was referring to Lebanon's capacity as president of the UN Security Council this month, hoping it would join other countries in condemning violence in Syria.
Iran, which had been referring to the Syrian uprising as a "foreign conspiracy," recently joined the list of countries supporting reform in Syria. In a televised interview yesterday, Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad said that "a military solution is never the right solution" and invited Assad to engage in "talks" with his people. If Iran loses its Syrian ally, that risks weakening the strategic alliance between the two countries, and Hezbollah in Lebanon.
Since the start of the uprising, Hezbollah has found itself caught between a rock and a hard place. Its arms supply, especially long-range missiles, is threatened, if the Syrian route is eliminated. Another danger that would be removed is the prospect of Syria's involvement in a future war against Israel. In addition to regional considerations, Hezbollah is struggling to enhance its image in the aftermath of the release of the Special Tribunal for Lebanon indictments, which pointed the finger of blame at four of its senior members in the killing of late Premier Rafik Hariri.
The regional shifts in foreign policy have also strengthened the future potential of the March 14 coalition. At first skeptical that popular protests would break the iron first of a 40-year-old dictatorship, Lebanese groups preferred to watch the revolution from a distance. The increasing death toll and diplomatic sanctioning of the Syrian regime emboldened March 14 supporters, encouraging them to organize rallies in solidarity with the Syria people. On Thursday, they held a protest in downtown Beirut, under the slogan "For a Better Future for the Two Peoples," calling for the support of the Syrian victims and the expulsion of the Syrian Ambassador to Lebanon Ali Abdul Karim Ali. This group is hopeful that Lebanon will stand to gain more from a Syrian transition than it stands to lose, but much depends on how the events in Syria unfold and whether what began as a popular uprising will turn into a civil conflict that could spill beyond Syria's borders.


