Climate Change and Arctic Change: The Shared Future

Environmental conditions at the planet’s polar ends perform a vital role in regulating global climate, ocean temperatures and sea level.  As a storehouse of economic and ecological resources (fossil fuels, minerals, fish), these regions contain some of the largest remaining diverse ecosystems on Earth. These ecosystems are critical for plankton, migratory birds, whales, and other animals, and, in the Arctic, for the human populations that depend upon them. The aesthetic value cannot be measured.

The effect of global warming is clearly evident in polar regions: the average annual sea ice extent in the Arctic is decreasing at an accelerating rate.  Dramatic changes are underway, changes unprecedented in human memory. There is wide-spread thinning of the sea ice in the Arctic and, in some places, open waters are expected to replace sea-ice year round. Since 1978, there has been a nearly 8 percent per decade decline in the area covered by sea-ice, which sustains marine mammals, and on average it is 32 percent thinner than before.

The Proposed International Dialogue on Arctic Climate Change

In the last year, climate change and the potential for industrial development of natural resources, particularly oil and gas in Alaska, Canada and Russia, have raised the profile of the Arctic. A number of important international studies, including the Arctic Climate Impact Assessment, point to the rapid and accelerating rate of climate change in the Arctic as a harbinger for what is to come on the rest of the planet.

Recognizing that there is no comprehensive international arrangement protecting the circumpolar Arctic region; that the Arctic region is experiencing significant ecological change related to global warming; and that it will likely face transformative impacts and new levels of human activity during the course of the 21st Century, the Aspen Institute proposes to convene a high-level international commission to consider the implications of this impending transformation for the region’s inhabitants and resources.  In parallel with existing developments within the international legal and policy regimes responsible for the fate of the Arctic, a civil society and business discussion is needed to supplement the policy process and begin to respond to these dramatic changes.  The proposed international commission will work to develop a compelling strategy and recommendations to help ensure the conservation and sustainability of the Arctic and the Arctic Ocean in the face of dramatic environmental and economic changes expected to result from global warming.

The Institute’s proposed Commission on Arctic Climate Change: The Shared Future will explore the issues underlying these questions with a view towards the steps that might be recommended to assure a sustainable future for the inhabitants of the Arctic, and conserve the natural and living resources that are so important to the regional economy.

The Commission Background and Scope

Starting in 2006, the Aspen Institute’s Energy and Environment Program held informal meetings with small groups of key experts and stakeholders. The meetings identified several drivers in the Arctic that will lead to world-wide changes, focusing in particular on the Arctic marine environment, the region’s shared resource. These drivers include not just warming temperatures and receding sea ice, but potential for new or expanded economic and commercial activities that are projected to increase as the environment in the Arctic changes.

Aspen Institute dialogues serve to inform and broadly influence the debate around environmental policy questions and related economic and social issues. In the case of the Arctic, the profound consequences of climate change are only just beginning to sink into the consciousness of policy makers and opinion leaders, and as yet there has been little real debate over the future of the region. The scope of this commission is intended to spark a more serious discussion of the future of the circumpolar Arctic by:

• highlighting the foreseeable consequences of impending climate change in the region, including ecological changes and new patterns of resource availability and their economic implications;
• outlining the management challenges which are likely to be posed as a consequence of climate change and expanded commercial activities in the Arctic maritime environment;
• examining the capacity of current institutions to meet these challenges, and reviewing existing and proposed models of institutional and legal arrangements that might contribute to the region’s capacity to guide future developments; and
• making recommendations to the Arctic nations and the international community regarding the questions and issues that must be faced if the region is to have a sustainable future.

Link to Arctic Expedition

In the spirit of past explorations, a science-based ocean expedition to the High Arctic is being planned as a way to visualize and illuminate the effects global climate change is having on the Arctic. This expedition will serve as a sea-going laboratory for advancing a program of “integrated marine conservation” and public education on the effects of global warming. The expedition, with a multi-disciplinary team of scientists, educators, policymakers, artists and philosophers, will add spirit to the dialogue and potentially serve as one of the venues for the Commission’s meetings. The expedition and the commission dialogue are mutually reinforcing segments of a collaborative education project between the Aspen Institute and InMER Expeditions, a nonprofit marine conservation organization.

For additional information about this Commission or to provide support please contact:

Energy and Environment Program
The Aspen Institute
One Dupont Circle, NW
Suite 700
Washington, DC 20036-1193
P: 202-736-5800
energyandenvironment@aspeninstitute.org