National Eviction Risk Projections

Katherine Lucas McKay

Principal Researcher, Insights and Evidence

In August 2020, the COVID-19 Eviction Defense Project and the Aspen Institute Financial Security Program released new data projecting an estimated 30 million people in America could be at risk of eviction by the end of the year.

Safe and affordable housing is a basic human need and one that is vital during a public health crisis that cannot be brought under control if people do not have the ability to self-isolate when necessary.  Many property owners who lack the credit or financial ability to cover rental payment arrears will struggle to pay their mortgages and property taxes, and maintain properties. Every city, state, and county is affected by the crisis.

This slide deck describes the methodology and approach to our analysis, which is responsible for the lower-bound in the 30-40M range released in early August. It also discusses which populations are most at risk.

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